My AFL theory.

[DANSTAR]

For people who know about footy and disposals (kicks and handballs) i just came up with this little theory that i only thought applied to the bulldogs (as i go for them and check out their stats often).

Well my thoery is when i watch a football or watch the scores/stats live on the net, i always notice that the team with more disposals is losing.

Like last year, we all know the dogs had a poor season coming last on the ladder, but we were still i think first on the disposlas list.

Most of you may just say, "duh, its becuase they overplay the ball".

Yes i see this point, but a team like brisbane also likes to play around with the ball, but still wins.

That's my 2 cents :)

(Wrote this during half time of dogs v port match. Dogs has more kicks and 1 les scoring shot then port, but they r losing by 31 points :( and we kicked 1 goal 10 points in the 2nd qtr! :@ )

[Idol]

bulldogs have no options up forward so they pussyfoot around until sum1 leads or a pack merges

its silly to compare bulldogs and brisbane. brisbane have THE strongest midfielders, hence around packs and ball ups they read it much better and get it out to their running players who bomb it long to lynch

maybe u could compare the possession to disposal ratio or sumthing

[LOKO]

There is no theory here, disposals really don't mean much by themselves. You could get a goal from a center bounce in 2 or 3 disposals, or you could do it in 10 - 15. How you actually use the ball when you've got it is what counts.

Example: when Collingwood won the wooden spoon in 1999, Buckley was leading the competition in possessions.

[DANSTAR]

bulldogs have no options up forward so they pussyfoot around until sum1 leads or a pack merges

its silly to compare bulldogs and brisbane. brisbane have THE strongest midfielders, hence around packs and ball ups they read it much better and get it out to their running players who bomb it long to lynch

maybe u could compare the possession to disposal ratio or sumthing
We do have an option up forward. Jade Rawlings?

And why is it silly? I was comparing the strongest team in the comp agianst the worst. Showing that a good team like Brisbane knows how to use it. Bulldogs just pass it around leading to nothing.

[Beef_Taco]

There is no theory here, disposals really don't mean much by themselves. You could get a goal from a center bounce in 2 or 3 disposals, or you could do it in 10 - 15. How you actually use the ball when you've got it is what counts.

No i disagree with you and agree with danstar, ive noticed the eagle screwing around with the ball too much, and it leading to more mistakes because of poor decision making, due to to much ball handling.

Key of the game:

Get the ruck knock down to a rover.
Boot it to CHF or FF
Kick a goal
Start again.

[LOKO]

Errr, did I not say disposals mean nothing, and it depends on how effectively you use the ball? Believe it or not, kicking a goal in 3 plays is a bit harder than it looks.

[Beef_Taco]

happens alot though

[chriz]

the stategy that's working this season is the bomb it long and let ur forwards have 1on1 contests, or let your rovers get the crumbs then quick goal.

look at the saints..i'd have so much confidence just banging it long to hammil+gherig+reiwoldt 1on1 they're so hard to beat.
then milne + guerra awsome at the crumbs

i'd hav no confidence in bombing it long to rawlings for a 1on1
same with the hawks, no one upforward

sides like port hav tredrae, melbourne neitz, brisbane lynch+brown
and they're the top teams.

[Beef_Taco]

eagles have noone, thats whats letting us down, we probly have the best midfeild in the country, just no foward structure

[Idol]

its silly coz ur comparing **** players with good players basically

its like saying

"y can't i steal the ball off michael jordan (10 yrs ago)"

jade rawlings isn't exactly a "power" forward

[DarK]

Jade has just got he yips atm...

I think it's well proven that any team that is direct and kicks long to the leading forwards will do well...
Melbourne hardly ever did it last year.. This yeah it's all we have been doing, hance 4 games won in a row... and we didn't do that in the first round, hence thumped by hawthorn

Bris can stuff around with it because just about evey player is a star, so they can control it and keep calm.. most teams stuff around with it for that long that they end up passing it to someone that is under a crap load of pressure

But like Dan said, they kicked 7 goals 22 points... it wasn't as if there were a lot of rushed behinds... I mean they were missing goals from 10m out... fix that and Jade's kicking and they will do well

[M@ndrake]

i partially agree with dan. the more u **** around with the ball, in short passing and kicks the mosr chances tehre are taht a mistake will occur.

good teams drive the ball forward and into the goals, or atleast into the goal square, none of this pussy fotting around the ruck area and kicking sideways.

[DarK]

If you watch the way Richmond has been playing, they have been doing exactly that... Stuffing around with it in the mid field too much and not getting it down the other end

[DANSTAR]

its silly coz ur comparing **** players with good players basically

its like saying

"y can't i steal the ball off michael jordan (10 yrs ago)"

jade rawlings isn't exactly a "power" forward
There's no such thing as a **** player in the AFL. EVery has their position and their role in a game. A **** player would be a player who was lost, never got a possesion and just made the team play worse then they already do. And I don't know one AFL player who doesn't give it their all every game to help their side win.

So don't call good players, ****.

[Beef_Taco]

i hate when teams chip kick out of defence...so bloody risky

[LOKO]

Thought this was relevant. Taken from the Herald Sun, 26/04/2004.
127 uncontested marks, and they still got thrashed. Like I said, disposals don't mean anything as a statistic.

[DANSTAR]

That proves my point. Hawks have way more marks, but still got thrashed. Lions passed the ball around less and won.

[M@ndrake]

loko, there are lies, damn lies and statistics ;)

[iDuck]

So what exactly is your theory?

[Shad]

My theory is the team with the better players, that play well, tends to win. :p

[DANSTAR]

Say Team 1 plays Team 2.

Team 1 has 300 disposals in a game, Team 2, has 150.

Team 2 wins by 3 goals.

That's my little thoery in a nut shell.

[iDuck]

Wow. I have a theory that none of you know what you're talking about.

[Beef_Taco]

hahahaha iduck :P